Hormuz Became the World’s Most Valuable Chokepoint 

Co‑edited by Steven Smith   

1. What International Maritime Law Actually Allows

Under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which governs most global maritime norms: 

• Transit passage through international straits (like Hormuz) must remain open, even during conflict. 

• Coastal states (Iran and Oman) cannot legally close the central navigable channel, even if they are at war. 

• They can regulate safety, environmental rules, and port access—but they cannot halt innocent passage of foreign vessels. 

However: 

• The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports—not the Strait itself—is a separate action. 

• Iran’s response, according to AP reporting, has been to fire on ships approaching the Strait and declare that “no vessel should make any movement” toward it apnews.com. 

Legally, Iran is in violation of transit‑passage norms.  Strategically, Iran is exploiting the fact that law doesn’t matter if you control the water with guns.   

2. The Channels: Who Controls What

The Strait of Hormuz has three functional lanes: 

1. Outbound traffic lane (toward the Arabian Sea) 

1. Inbound traffic lane (toward the Persian Gulf) 

1. The central deep‑water channel, which is the only route large tankers can safely use.

    

2. The Three Functional Lanes of the Strait of Hormuz

   The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is one of the world’s most critical shipping chokepoints, handling about 20% of global oil and LNG exports Wikipedia+1. To manage the high volume and risk of traffic, it operates under a Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) that defines three main functional lanes:

   1. Outbound Traffic Lane

   1. 1. • Direction: Toward the Arabian Sea (from the Persian Gulf).

         • Width: About 2 miles wide.

         • Purpose: Dedicated to vessels leaving the Persian Gulf, including large tankers, container ships, and other commercial and military craft ontimebrief.com+1.

         • Flow: Ships in this lane move in a single, controlled direction to avoid head-on collisions.

   2. Inbound Traffic Lane

   1. 1. • Direction: Toward the Persian Gulf (from the Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea).

         • Width: Also about 2 miles wide.

         • Purpose: For vessels entering the Persian Gulf, often carrying goods from the Indian Ocean and beyond ontimebrief.com+1.

         • Flow: Maintains a steady, predictable movement in the opposite direction to outbound traffic.

   3. Central Deep‑Water Channel

   1. • Location: Between the two main lanes, separated by a ~2‑mile buffer zone ontimebrief.com.

   2. Width: Narrower than the main lanes, but deep enough for large tankers.

   3. Purpose: The only safe route for deep‑draft vessels, especially supertankers, due to depth and navigational constraints.

   4. Use: Primarily for large oil tankers and other deep‑draft ships that cannot safely use the surface lanes.

      

From the AP reporting: 

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has fired on ships attempting to pass. 

• They have declared the Strait closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade. 

• They warned that approaching the Strait “will be considered cooperation with the enemy” apnews.com. 

This means: 

• Iran effectively controls the central channel, regardless of legality. 

• The U.S. controls Iran’s port access, which is economically suffocating but does not physically stop global oil flow. 

In pure leverage terms: 

Iran holds the tactical chokepoint. 

The U.S. holds the strategic economic chokehold. 

Both sides have a different kind of “upper hand,” and neither can fully neutralize the other without escalation.   

3. Who Has the Upper Hand Right Now?

Based on the AP reporting and the dynamics of maritime chokepoints: 

Iran’s Upper Hand: Immediate Disruption 

• Iran can instantly spike global oil prices by threatening or firing on ships. 

• One‑fifth of global oil normally passes through Hormuz. 

• Even rumors of closure move markets. 

Iran’s message is simple:  “Lift the blockade or the world economy bleeds.” 

U.S. Upper Hand: Long‑Term Pressure 

• The U.S. blockade is strangling Iran’s economy. 

• It prevents Iran from exporting oil, its main revenue source. 

• It forces Iran to negotiate from a weakened position. 

The U.S. message is:  “You can close the Strait, but you’ll collapse before we do.” 

Net Assessment 

Right now, Iran has the short‑term leverage, because physical control of a chokepoint is more immediately disruptive than a port blockade.  But the U.S. has the long‑term leverage, because Iran cannot sustain a total economic cutoff.   

4. Will the U.S. Retaliate Militarily?

We cannot predict future military actions.  Analyzing the signals reported in the AP article: 

• The U.S. president said the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached. 

• He rejected any Iranian restrictions or tolls on the Strait. 

• U.S. Central Command confirmed it has already turned back 23 ships attempting to reach Iran’s ports apnews.com. 

These statements suggest: 

• The U.S. is doubling down on economic pressure. 

• The administration is signaling resolve, not retreating. 

• Retaliation—if it occurs—would likely be targeted, not a full‑scale confrontation. 

The U.S. historically avoids direct conflict in Hormuz unless: 

1. U.S. ships are attacked, or 

1. Global oil flow is catastrophically disrupted. 

Iran firing on foreign vessels moves the situation closer to that threshold.   

5. Commentary: Market Signals & Political Spin

“The administration’s public messaging is oddly calibrated—tough enough to rattle markets, but vague enough to leave insiders guessing. And when insiders guess correctly, they profit.

The timing of statements, the ambiguity around the blockade, and the predictable oil‑price whiplash all create an environment where those with advance knowledge or deep market positioning stand to gain the most.” 

“Meanwhile, the public is told this is about security and diplomacy. But the market behavior suggests that the real beneficiaries are those who understand how geopolitical tension translates into oil futures volatility.” 

This is commentary from PAiNT Network—not a factual claim   

6. Bottom Line

• International law says the Strait must remain open. 

• Iran is ignoring that and using physical control to pressure the world. 

• The U.S. is using economic blockade to pressure Iran. 

• Both sides have leverage, but of different kinds. 

• Markets react instantly to Iran’s actions and more slowly to U.S. policy. 

 

 

Steven Smith, Inspirational Technologies / PAiNT Network

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