There is a perception that licensed legal cannabis businesses are essentially printing money.
In fact, due to 280E, a typical multi-state operator is paying an effective tax rate of more than 60% each year, while Amazon’s effective federal income tax rate was 6.1% in 2021.
Although the cannabis space is still growing and will only increase in size, the sad truth is a reckoning is coming.
The realities of the macroeconomic conditions impacting every other industry cannot be avoided and are an increasing drag on an already overburdened industry.
Rising inflation rates and concerns over political uncertainty are taking a toll.
And the cannabis industry has its own unique problems that keep real progress at bay:
A high taxation rate pushes many consumers away from the regulated market and to illicit dealers where products aren’t guaranteed to be tested and safe.
Falling wholesale prices and increased competition force discounting that flatten margins.
The lack of federal legislative action on banking issues continues to weigh the industry down. Forces are combining to create the industry’s first sustained downturn, which is already underway. 
There have been layoffs at high-profile cannabis tech companies. Shares of some publicly-traded cannabis companies have plunged more than 70% since February 2021.
Sales are off from projected levels. And merger and acquisition activity will continue to force rightsizing.
Price wars drive down revenue; social equity efforts stall Development of industrial agricultural processes in cannabis has led to commodification of the crop, pushing wholesale prices down by 18% year-over-year.
In the meantime, increased competition is leading some less sophisticated cannabis retailers and brands to dramatically discount products, relinquishing millions in bottom-line revenue in the process.
While price compression was expected, it arrived sooner and has been more formidable than anticipated.
And there’s little chance price compression will reverse on a commodity crop.
As states expand their markets by adding licenses for more dispensaries and producers in an effort to maximize tax revenue, the problem is exacerbated.
More outlets equal more taxes but also increased competition which has ignited a race to the bottom in discounting.
Progressive state laws embolden the illicit market.
The cannabis industry and many recent states legalizing adult-use cannabis have made it clear that cannabis policy is also a social equity issue.
But the progress of awarding licenses to social equity applicants is stymied by the industry’s ongoing lack of financing options. 
It is laudable to award 50% of adult-use cannabis licenses to social and economic equity applicants as New York requires.
However, if these businesses cannot access necessary capital to stand up an operation, they will never succeed.
Until the industry’s longstanding banking problems are resolved at the federal level, social equity efforts are bound to fail.
Federal Policy: Dead on Arrival
Like everyone else, I was hopeful 2020’s ‘Blue Wave’ was going to be beneficial for the cannabis industry. But we were all bamboozled by politicians who lied to get the job and have not followed through on their empty promises.
Even despite the watershed moment of Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer placing the full backing of his office behind cannabis legalization, midterm-election-year politics doom any real federal legislative progress this year. 
As congressional minutiae around state protections and safe banking for cannabis continues, we are watching the slow-motion decimation of a powerful job-creating industry, hamstrung due to ineffective leadership that is over-regulating and overtaxing on a state level and completely disregarding and obstructing on a federal level.
President Biden ran on his support of the cannabis industry, yet continues himself to manufacture roadblocks against legalization while the country experiences an eye-popping 25% increase in federal cannabis arrests under the Biden regime.
Senator Schumer has been completely ineffective introducing legislation that overreaches and is DOA by the time it hits the floor.
While cannabis receives 92% approval at some level from bipartisan constituents, these voters’ representatives continue to work to override the will of the people.
The time to receive clear and defined guidance on banking issues from the federal government is now.
Our federal representatives must level the playing field for the cannabis industry and allow the same participation in corporate banking and taxes granted to every other regulated industry, from pharmaceuticals to the alcohol industry.
All is not lost:
What’s going right Despite the industry’s current ongoing challenges, growing pains should be considered as the natural lifecycle of a nascent industry certain to experience continued long-term growth.
Although layoffs are personally painful, eliminating redundancies and reducing costs are beneficial to a company’s health and necessary for rightsizing an organization for the long haul.
Rightsizing an organization demonstrates responsibility and accountability from senior leadership in an industry that often sees more ego-driven, inexperienced decisions.
Bottom-line: duplication and wasteful spending are just as bad in a good economy as one under pressure.
Smart reductions re-set the table for stability and long-term growth. Then it’s go-time for material progress, otherwise perhaps we need to see some change at the top.
In the end, long-term growth is the ultimate goal, particularly for an industry that is still in its infancy.
And the prospects for long-term growth are overwhelmingly positive.
In January, U.S. employment in the cannabis industry stood at nearly 429,000 full-time jobs and growing.
Even as the country went through the second year of the pandemic, the sector saw a 33% increase in new careers, creating more than 107,000 jobs thus far in 2022.
That’s about 280 new jobs per day. Of course, there will be tough decisions to be made in the near term. But industry job growth is expected to continue, especially as new markets come online.
In essence, the cannabis industry is not immune to the current economic instability impacting every other facet of the economy. But combined with the industry’s other unique challenges, this turmoil provides an opportunity to course-correct for the next stage of growth and the eventual reform at the federal level.
As cannabis industry leadership steps up to make the tough decisions, we can only hope – and demand – those political leaders do the same.
1 – Change is coming in the world of banking.
A lack of access to banking is not new news for the cannabis industry, which faces significant roadblocks in operation. But there are two potential beacons of hope for cannabis companies — the Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act and changes to the IRS Code 280E.
There are also ongoing discussions about changes to IRS Code 280E. This specific section of the Internal Revenue Code prohibits the deduction of several business expenses on federal taxes for businesses presently engaged in trading controlled substances, like cannabis.
While these two pieces of proposed legislation are still being debated, there are signs that momentum is building for change, and we predict that big things are coming soon.
2 – 2022 cannabis trends show that federal legalization is closer than ever.
It’s no secret that the legalization and decriminalization of cannabis are trending favorably. Even before the Presidential election of 2020, members of Congress had introduced several bills aimed at loosening federal restrictions or decriminalizing cannabis.
MORE Act
The Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, which would have decriminalized cannabis and expunged criminal records for nonviolent cannabis offenses.
STATES Act
The Strengthening the Tenth Amendment Through Entrusting States (STATES) Act would have prohibited federal enforcement actions against cannabis conduct that is otherwise compliant with state law.
The Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act
The Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act only complicated the legalization landscape even more in 2021. This comprehensive bill would significantly change how cannabis is regulated by the federal government, enable interstate commerce in cannabis, and decriminalize cannabis.
As with the banking situation, there is no clear and direct path to any of these bills becoming law. Regardless, it’s clear that Congress continues to push forward in favor of the cannabis industry.
Surprisingly, it’s not just the Democrats in Congress making moves. U.S. Republican Nancy Mace from South Carolina just introduced a new bill to decriminalize cannabis, promoting each state’s individual preference for treating cannabis. Again, while this bill is still some distance away from becoming law, this new and refreshing energy from a Republican in a red state could help thrust the ongoing debate forward.
3 – Integrated technology in cannabis is ever-evolving.
The cannabis industry is no stranger to integrated technology. To help evolve and refine the cannabis experience, we’re expecting a growth in the number of cannabis products and consumption tools that harness data and new technology emerging in the upcoming year.
From vapes that developers can routinely update to QR codes on product packaging, cannabis tech will continue to get more intelligent and innovative, on a par with all other smart household devices.
Cannabis is quickly embracing the Internet of Things, which will prove to be a benefit to producers and consumers alike. With the data this technology provides, marketers will begin to gain insight into what effects people are experiencing and how they are enjoying their cannabis.
Take, for example, the latest technology for being able to test potency from the comfort of your own home. How potent is your cannabutter? Are you tired of guessing when it comes to dosing? The Check Potency Testing Thank you for consideration.
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Plus technology allows you to eliminate all the guesswork.
Now, for both THC and CBD, always check their COAs!
4 – Say hello to consumption lounges.
One of 2022’s cannabis trends we’re most excited to see is the rise in the number of consumption lounges and, as a direct result, the growing profile of cannabis in the tourism sector.
Because of the legality concerns of using cannabis in many states across the country, consumers have mostly been forced to indulge in private. But, as the market continues maturing and decriminalization gathers steam, consumers will begin pushing for more elevated experiences.
The solution to providing an elevated cannabis experience will be the introduction of consumption lounges.
Nevada has passed legislation allowing adults to eat or smoke cannabis in consumption lounges and in doing so has become the eighth state to legalize pot lounges. In mid-2022, we can expect to see the first Vegas consumption lounges opening.
While consumption lounges are mostly rarities and tend to be slow to open, they will set the stage for breaking down some of the boundaries the industry faces today. Consumption lounges will be sure to help with boosting cannabis sales, de-stigmatizing the plant, and potentially supporting social equity.
Consumption lounges will create another venue for industry leaders to connect directly with their customers. In addition, they will open up endless possibilities for experiential marketing. As consumers return to public life with the ever-present craving for novelty, this segment is primed to become even bigger post-pandemic.
As cannabis tourism continues to trend favorably, we can only anticipate seeing more growth in this area, including things like cultivation classes, cannabis-spa packages, dispensary and farm tours, and even cannabis hotels and restaurants.
5 – There will be new cannabis products to look out for.
With a new year comes the emergence of new product offerings. The cannabis flower will continue its reign as king in most markets. Again, touching on the post-pandemic market filled with consumers looking to socialize in large groups once again, we’ll see the rise of new cannabis products that accommodate this lifestyle.
We expect to see canna-beverages exploding in the next year. Innovative technologies in the cannabis industry continue to improve emulsion techniques and nanotechnology. At the same time, more and more Americans are seeking out non-alcoholic alternatives. It’s the perfect time for something like canna-beverages to enter the market, filling that void as a lower-calorie, non-hangover-inducing option.
6 – Celebrities setting the trends in investing.
A growing number of sports stars, musicians, and actors, including some of Hollywood’s biggest names, are trying their hand at investing in the cannabis industry. As cannabis continues to trend in the mainstream, many famous folks are hopping into the business. Here are just a few noteworthy celebs and their brands:
Snoop Dogg’s Leafs By Snoop
Martha Stewart’s Martha Stewart CBD
7 – Cannabis technology will make growing accessible to anyone with the time and patience’
One of the primary benefits of hydroponics is that it eliminates the guesswork from crop maintenance.
8 – Cannabinoids and psychedelics will begin to diversify.
Not surprisingly, THC and CBD will remain on top of everyone’s list, but some of the 100-plus lesser-known cannabinoids are going to start to become more and more popular.
Be on the lookout in the upcoming year for some of these less common cannabinoids:
Cannabigerol (CBG)
Cannabinol (CBN)
Tetrahydrocannabiphorol (THCP)
Tetrahydrocannabinol-O-acetate (THC-O)
Delta-8 tetrahydrocannabinol (THC)
In the world of psychedelics, cannabis is also moving mountains in terms of paving the way for the legalization of psilocybin mushrooms and other psychedelics. Using cannabis’ path as a guide, many have already started exploring the therapeutic potential of these plants, and grassroots organizers are pushing for decriminalization and legalization.
9 – Things will heat up in the kitchen with more cannabis cooking.
Cannabis is booming —so much so that this period we’re currently in is referred to as the Green Rush. Everyone is getting on board with cannabis, which is why we’re not too surprised to see it in the heart of the home, the kitchen.
It’s incredible to see how far it’s already come. Even the notable Food & Wine released an article this year titled The Food & Wine Guide to Culinary Cannabis, with everything including the basics, how to make your own cannabutter, and some drool-worthy recipes.
Don’t just take our word for it. Check out some of our top picks:
Cannabis-Infused Brioche French Toast
Cannabis-Infused Pasta with Clams and Green Chiles
Cannabis-Infused Citrus-Caramel Blondies
10 – Investment opportunities will be on the rise.
Investors are growing more confident as the cannabis industry continues moving towards federal legalization. These investors will continue to use the same tactics they have in the past for more traditional businesses but instead pour their money into cannabis brands. 2022 cannabis trends suggest that the funding drought will be over for many.
Cannabis marketing departments will be messaging not only B2B or B2C but also digging deeper into market segments and B2I. We’ll be watching cannabis founders become experts at raising capital in both maturing and newly approved markets, with more Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC) and venture capital funds getting involved in the cannabis space.
11 – Global growth of cannabis will bring broader branding and marketing efforts.
The largest and oldest trade show in the cannabis sector is MJBizCon. At this year’s conference, we are likely to see an increase in global growth with contributing countries beyond the United States, including Paraguay, Germany, and Argentina.
This growth will open up an international approach to cannabis branding and marketing and show us what it might look like as more cannabrands reach a global scale and achieve international recognition.
12 – Cannabis and wellness will become synonymous.
Cannabis isn’t the only industry that’s booming right now. With it is the wellness market, which is currently measured in the trillions of dollars. Cannabis brands are leveraging their messaging to be more wellness-centric, promoting things like personal optimization to reach new prospective consumers.
Companies can use that familiar shorthand to introduce their products and tout their benefits because consumers are fairly well versed with the language and ethos of the supplement industry. We’ll see more cannabrands educating customers that are curious about cannabis products in the upcoming year. A prime example is how they can incorporate products like concentrates or tinctures into their self-improvement, wellness, and workout routines.
Final thoughts.
So, there you have it. Thank you for the Internet’s top 12 predictions for the cannabis industry in 2022 show that there are exciting things ahead..
2022
cannabis trends are favorable as we move towards federal legalization and, with it, uncharted territories.
Thank you for consideration.
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